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- The origins of
kriging: Mathematical
Geology, Vol.
22, No. 3. (1
April 1990),
pp. 239-252.In
this article,
kriging is
equated with
spatial
optimal linear
prediction,
where the
unknown
random-process
mean is
estimated with
the best
linear
unbiased
estimator.
This allows
early
appearances of
(spatial)
prediction
techniques to
be assessed in
terms of how
close they
came to
kriging.Noel
Cressie
Source: Mathematical Geology, Vol. 22, No. 3. (1 April 1990), pp. 239-252. - Deriving
meteorological
variables
across Africa
for the study
and control of
vector-borne
disease: a
comparison of
remote sensing
and spatial
interpolation
of climate.: Trop Med Int
Health, Vol.
4, No. 1.
(January
1999), pp.
58-71.This
paper presents
the results of
an
investigation
into the
utility of
remote sensing
(RS) using
meteorological
satellites
sensors and
spatial
interpolation
(SI) of data
from
meteorological
stations, for
the prediction
of spatial
variation in
monthly
climate across
continental
Africa in
1990.
Information
from the
Advanced Very
High
Resolution
Radiometer
(AVHRR) of the
National
Oceanic and
Atmospheric
Administration
's (NOAA)
polar-orbiting
meteorological
satellites was
used to
estimate land
surface
temperature
(LST) and
atmospheric
moisture. Cold
cloud duration
(CCD) data
derived from
the High
Resolution
Radiometer
(HRR) on-board
the European
Meteorological
Satellite
programme's
(EUMETSAT)
Meteosat
satellite
series were
also used as a
RS proxy
measurement of
rainfall.
Temperature,
atmospheric
moisture and
rainfall
surfaces were
independently
derived from
SI of
measurements
from the World
Meteorological
Organization
(WMO) member
stations of
Africa. These
meteorological
station data
were then used
to test the
accuracy of
each
methodology,
so that the
appropriatenes
s of the two
techniques for
epidemiologica
l research
could be
compared. SI
was a more
accurate
predictor of
temperature,
whereas RS
provided a
better
surrogate for
rainfall; both
were equally
accurate at
predicting
atmospheric
moisture. The
implications
of these
results for
mapping short
and long-term
climate change
and hence
their
potential for
the study and
control of
disease
vectors are
considered.
Taking into
account
logistic and
analytical
problems,
there were no
clear
conclusions
regarding the
optimality of
either
technique, but
there was
considerable
potential for
synergy.SI
Hay, JJ Lennon
Source: Trop Med Int Health, Vol. 4, No. 1. (January 1999), pp. 58-71. - Relations
between
Surface
Temperature
and Air
Temperature on
a Local Scale
during Winter
Nights: Journal of
Applied
Meteorology,
Vol. 39, No.
9. (1
September
2000), pp.
1570-1579.The
relations
between
surface
temperature
and air
temperature on
clear winter
nights were
investigated
with regard to
spatial scale
and the
vegetation
effect at a
local
meteorological
scale. The
study was
based on
nighttime
images
obtained from
the Landsat
Thematic
Mapper and
high-density
meteorological
data obtained
from the
Automated
Meteorological
Data
Acquisition
System
(AMeDAS). The
correlation
coefficients
between the
air
temperatures
and the
surface
temperatures
at the AMeDAS
stations were
relatively
high despite
the simple
comparison.
Surface
temperature
alone
explained 80%
of the
observed
variation in
air
temperature.
The spatial
scales of the
effect of
surface
temperature on
air
temperature
and the effect
of vegetation
density on air
temperature
were related
to the mean
lapse rate of
the
atmospheric
boundary
layer. Air
temperature
was more
sensitive to
vegetation
density when
the mean lapse
rate of the
atmospheric
boundary layer
was smaller.
Accuracy in
the estimation
of air
temperature
from
satellite-deri
ved surface
temperature
data was
improved by
multiple
regression
using the
spatially
averaged
surface
temperature
and normalized
difference
vegetation
index.Shigeto
Kawashima,
Tomoyuki
Ishida, Mitsuo
Minomura,
Tetsuhisa Miwa
Source: Journal of Applied Meteorology, Vol. 39, No. 9. (1 September 2000), pp. 1570-1579. - Climate change
cannot explain
the upsurge of
tick-borne
encephalitis
in the
baltics.: PLoS ONE, Vol.
2
(2007)BACKGROU
ND: Pathogens
transmitted by
ticks cause
human disease
on a greater
scale than any
other
vector-borne
infections in
Europe, and
have increased
dramatically
over the past
2-3 decades.
Reliable
records of
tick-borne
encephalitis
(TBE) since
1970 show an
especially
sharp upsurge
in cases in
Eastern Europe
coincident
with the end
of Soviet
rule,
including the
three Baltic
countries,
Estonia,
Latvia and
Lithuania,
where national
incidence
increased from
1992 to 1993
by 64, 175 and
1,065%,
respectively.
At the county
level within
each country,
however, the
timing and
degree of
increase
showed marked
heterogeneity.
Climate has
also changed
over this
period,
prompting an
almost
universal
assumption of
causality. For
the first
time, we
analyse
climate and
TBE
epidemiology
at
sufficiently
fine spatial
and temporal
resolution to
question this
assumption.
METHODOLOGY/PR
INCIPAL
FINDING:
Detailed
analysis of
instrumental
records of
climate has
revealed a
significant
step increase
in spring-time
daily maximum
temperatures
in 1989. The
seasonal
timing and
precise level
of this
warming were
indeed such as
could promote
the
transmission
of TBE virus
between larval
and nymphal
ticks
co-feeding on
rodents. These
changes in
climate,
however, are
virtually
uniform across
the Baltic
region and
cannot
therefore
explain the
marked
spatio-tempora
l
heterogeneity
in TBE
epidemiology.
CONCLUSIONS/SI
GNIFICANCE:
Instead, it is
proposed that
climate is
just one of
many different
types of
factors, many
arising from
the
socio-economic
transition
associated
with the end
of Soviet
rule, that
have acted
synergisticall
y to increase
both the
abundance of
infected ticks
and the
exposure of
humans to
these ticks.
Understanding
the precise
differential
contribution
of each factor
as a cause of
the observed
epidemiologica
l
heterogeneity
will help
direct control
strategies.D
Sumilo, L
Asokliene, A
Bormane, V
Vasilenko, I
Golovljova, SE
Randolph
Source: PLoS ONE, Vol. 2 (2007) - HISTALP -
historical
instrumental
climatological
surface time
series of the
Greater Alpine
Region: International
Journal of
Climatology,
Vol. 27, No.
1. (2007), pp.
17-46.This
paper
describes the
HISTALP
database,
consisting of
monthly
homogenised
records of
temperature,
pressure,
precipitation,
sunshine and
cloudiness for
the 'Greater
Alpine Region'
(GAR, 4-19°E,
43-49°N,
0-3500m asl).
The longest
temperature
and air
pressure
series extend
back to 1760,
precipitation
to 1800,
cloudiness to
the 1840s and
sunshine to
the 1880s. A
systematic QC
procedure has
been applied
to the series
and a high
number of
inhomogeneitie
s (more than
2500) and
outliers (more
than 5000)
have been
detected and
removed. The
557 HISTALP
series are
kept in
different data
modes:
original and
homogenised,
gap-filled and
outlier
corrected
station mode
series, grid-1
series
(anomaly
fields at 1° ×
1°, lat ×
long) and
Coarse
Resolution
Subregional
(CRS) mean
series
according to
an EOF-based
regionalisatio
n. The leading
climate
variability
features
within the GAR
are discussed
through
selected
examples and a
concluding
linear trend
analysis for
100, 50 and
25-year
subperiods for
the four
horizontal and
two
altitudinal
CRSs. Among
the key
findings of
the trend
analysis is
the parallel
centennial
decrease/incre
ase of both
temperature
and air
pressure in
the 19th/20th
century. The
20th century
increase (+1.2
°C/+ 1.1 hPa
for annual
GAR-means)
evolved
stepwise with
a first peak
near 1950 and
the second
increase (1.3
°C/0.6hPa per
25 years)
starting in
the 1970s.
Centennial and
decadal scale
temperature
trends were
identical for
all
subregions.
Air pressure,
sunshine and
cloudiness
show
significant
differences
between low
versus high
elevations. A
long-term
increase of
the
high-elevation
series
relative to
the
low-elevation
series is
given for
sunshine and
air pressure.
Of special
interest is
the
exceptional
high
correlation
near 0.9
between the
series on mean
temperature
and air
pressure
difference
(high-minus
low-elevation)
. This,
further
developed via
some
atmospheric
statics and
thermodynamics
, allows the
creation of
?barometric
temperature
series?
without use of
the measures
of
temperature.
They support
the measured
temperature
trends in the
region.
Precipitation
shows the most
significant
regional and
seasonal
differences
with, e.g.,
remarkable
opposite 20th
century
evolution for
NW (9%
increase)
versus SE (9%
decrease).
Other long-
and short-term
features are
discussed and
indicate the
promising
potential of
the new
database for
further
analyses and
applications.I
ngeborg Auer,
Reinhard Böhm,
Anita
Jurkovic,
Wolfgang Lipa,
Alexander
Orlik, Roland
Potzmann,
Wolfgang
Schöner,
Markus
Ungersböck,
Christoph
Matulla, Keith
Briffa, Phil
Jones,
Dimitrios
Efthymiadis,
Michele
Brunetti,
Teresa Nanni,
Maurizio
Maugeri, Luca
Mercalli,
Olivier
Mestre,
Jean-Marc
Moisselin,
Michael
Begert,
Gerhard
Müller-Westerm
eier, Vit
Kveton, Oliver
Bochnicek,
Pavel Stastny,
Milan Lapin,
Sándor Szalai,
Tamás
Szentimrey,
Tanja Cegnar,
Mojca Dolinar,
Marjana
Gajic-Capka,
Ksenija
Zaninovic,
Zeljko
Majstorovic,
Elena Nieplova
Source: International Journal of Climatology, Vol. 27, No. 1. (2007), pp. 17-46.
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